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Moody's sees LV market fragility
Report: Big supply poses risk for young commercial market
 
By Kevin Rademacher / Staff Writer

Construction continues on Thomas & Mack Development Group's Corporate Gateway center near the beltway and Jones Boulevard on Monday.
Photo by R. Marsh Starks

The commercial real estate market in Las Vegas improved in the second quarter of the year, according to Moody's Investors Service.

But it didn't help much.

In a Moody's report on the well-being of major commercial real estate markets, the Las Vegas metropolitan area posted a score of 57, up from a 51 score in the first quarter. Only eight markets scored worse than Sin City in the report, including Dallas, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, N.C., and Stamford, Conn.

The Las Vegas score was well below the 72 mark cited in the report as the U.S. composite.

Among the nation's top markets were Los Angeles with a score of 84 and New York with a score of 83.

The scores were included in Moody's quarterly Red-Yellow-Green Update, which "analyzes the anticipated performance of commercial real estate markets." The company produces the report as an indicator for the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.

Patricia McDonnell, a study author and vice president and senior analyst with Moody's, said the Las Vegas scores are a product of the rapid pace of building in the Las Vegas Valley and the relatively young market.

"The main observation we are watching in Las Vegas are the very robust supply pipelines," she said.

That explosive pace of under-construction projects represents potential risks, she said, particularly in a young economy. She pointed out that markets such as New York and Los Angeles are much more mature than Las Vegas, which has seen the vast majority of its growth happen in recent years.

UNLV economist Keith Schwer said the rapid pace of growth in Las Vegas is frequently misinterpreted by observers with limited knowledge of the local market.

"Is it possible if people stopped moving into the valley, we could have a problem? Yes," Schwer said. "That's like saying 'If it rains in Nevada we could have a flood.' What they are doing is stating the obvious."

"That's why we choose to do our due diligence here and not listen to someone from New York," he added.

A report released by Schwer and UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research last month painted a robust picture for the Southern Nevada economy.

Based on the region's performance so far this year, Schwer is now expecting 2005 employment levels to increase by 8 percent over 2004 to 876,699. The midyear forecast also predicts Southern Nevada's population to hit 1.83 million by year's end, up 4.5 percent from 2004. Gaming revenue also is expected to surge 6 percent from last year to $9.23 billion.

McDonnell agreed that the overall health of the Las Vegas market is good, adding quickly that if demand remains strong the equation works out for the positive over time.

"The supply numbers are really topping the charts," McDonnell said. "But when you have the demand, that can be very positive."

Additionally, the associated market conditions appear strong, the report revealed.

"The trend is looking quite positive with vacancy numbers down in every sector," McDonnell said. "All the other variables are really working in (Las Vegas') favor."

The local commercial real estate market posted strong scores in two sectors, multifamily housing, where Las Vegas earned a score of 82, and central-business-district (CBD) office market, where Las Vegas landed a 92.

The national composite for multifamily is 81 and 68 for CBD office.

From first to second quarter, Las Vegas saw its score in the multifamily market jump from 60 to 82. In the CBD office market, Las Vegas surged from 63 to 92.

"Seven markets now have vacancy rates below 10 percent, led by Forth Worth (Texas) and Las Vegas, both at 6.3 percent," the report said of the local CBD market, adding that the vacancy rate fell to its current level from a lofty 18.3 percent.

On the negative side, Las Vegas scored low for rapid supply growth in retail, industrial and suburban office developments. Still, vacancy rates for industrial properties fell in Las Vegas by 2.6 percent between the first and second quarters, the report said.

Kevin Rademacher covers utilities and finance for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4069 or by e-mail at kevinr@lasvegassun.com.

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